Black Friday is paid for in January

For a shop, Black Friday is one day. For the distributor that supplies it, it's a three-month cycle: buy the stock in October, sell in November, and the money meets, or doesn't, in January.

Three flows that land in the same month

1. Paying for the campaign stock. Goods bought in October on 60-day terms fall due in mid-January. Exactly when December payroll, taxes and the first bills of the year arrive.
2. Receipts that run late. Marketplaces settle periodically, not instantly. Retail chains have their own, often long, payment terms. And in campaign season a large customer rarely pays early and often pays late.
3. Returns. Online buyers have 14 days to change their mind. Part of November's sales come back in December: as stock in the warehouse and as money refunded.

Each one is familiar on its own. The problem is that nobody puts them on the same calendar until the balance shows it.

Two quiet losses

• Delivery penalties. Many contracts with large retail chains carry penalties for late or incomplete deliveries. They pile up in peak week, and are usually discovered from the penalty invoice.
• Unclaimed volume rebates. A supplier promises a rebate if you pass a threshold during the campaign. The rebate doesn't arrive by itself: it has to be claimed, on time, with the documents the contract asks for. If it's nobody's job, nobody claims it.

Working out January in three steps, with a spreadsheet

1. Lay out, week by week from December to February, everything you know for certain: bills to pay (campaign stock with its due dates), payroll, taxes, loan repayments.
2. Add expected receipts, on the real date, not the due date. If a customer usually pays 20 days late, put them 20 days late. Deduct estimated returns from campaign sales.
3. Build two versions: a normal one, and one where your largest customer pays a further 30 days late. The gap between them is the buffer you need, or the credit line to discuss with the bank now, not in January.

Separately, a short list: volume rebates promised for the campaign, the threshold, the documents required, the deadline and who's claiming them.

What it looks like when the forecast builds itself

The spreadsheet above is right, but it ages fast: every new invoice and every late payment makes it stale. In Cash Flow Forecast, the forecast starts straight from invoices, purchase and sales orders, and fixed payments. Each line carries its due date and the date you actually expect the money to move. Move a late receipt and you see at once how the balance changes in every month ahead, with the lowest point highlighted. For "what if our largest customer pays late", you build a scenario, not a second spreadsheet.

Rebates and penalties are contract matters: in BP Contracts, the obligation and its deadline live on the contract, and Termi, the colleague who never forgets a deadline, reminds the right person and keeps asking until it's done.

Three questions for this week

• What's our bank balance on 15 January, after paying for the campaign stock?
• What happens if our largest customer pays 30 days late?
• Which volume rebates were we promised, and who's claiming them, by when?